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Occupy Wall Street

 
Yesterday I accidentaly erased a blog on this subject, but a program I heard today on NPR causes me to try again.
 
The new protest movement, Occupy Wall Street, had 700 protesters arrested for trying to block traffic on the Brooklyn Bridge in their 1st week and has had repeated clashes with police around the country since then.  The Tea Party in all its rallies combined has not had 700 people arrested.  In fact, I can't remember any.  The tea partiers had explicit goals that they enumerated and explained as solutiions to problems.  OWS has none; only the most simplistic cries about what they DON'T like.  No programs, no plans, just noise.  The noise is an echo of the early 20th Century cries of the Anarchists and the IWW 'woolies'.
 
This kind of protest is purely divisive, takes us nowhere, and is conducted in a way that can easily lead to real riots and violence.
Acorn was a very bad group for a Democracy to tolerate for so long and ended up penetrating high into our government.  OWS tactics are a clone of the Saul Alinsky inspired Acorns.
 
Thinking people know this.  So, where is the outrage ?
 
The media covers it as a really important news story, giving the Group more time and space than any other new "protest movement".  They know this only incites more of the same.  The story has "legs" because the media promotes it, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.  Pundits started to write and talk about Democrats trying to "capture the OWS energy" for the 2012 elections.
 
The NPR show today actually was trying to find the "music" (there is none) of OWS and compared it to protests of Bob Dylan, Woody and Arlo Guthrie.  Trying to give OCS legitimacy by reference.  They also quoted Nancy Pelosi who expressed her "sympathy" with the legitimate complaints of the OWS.  It is getting worse.
 
President Obama encourages it with his divisive speeches.  He regularly vilifies Republican leaders, republicans in general, Supreme Court Justices, bankers, businessmen, successful people (the rich), anti carbon taxers, people who don't like his immigration policies (although he has yet to proppose one), his approach to health care (a solid majority of Americans want major changes or its complete repeal), his stall on oil and gas drilling, those who oppose his kow-towing to Unions, and the list goes on.
 
We have come a "long way, baby" in my lifetime, but now to a place where Americans should not want to be. 
 
So, my advice to OWS is the same as for Tea Partiers:  Protest as you will; behave by the law; don't expect handouts from local government of other taxpayers money to keep you going; be apologetic for the damage to local business families caused by long, in-situ events; and clean up after your mess.  Then go home.  Then in 2012 we can ALL protest with our votes, which is what democracy is all about.
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A Jobs Proposal

 
 
A Jobs Proposal                                                                              September 3, 2011
 
As we enjoy the rain on Labor Day Weekend, and look forward to the Republican Debate, the President's Speech, and the start of the NFL season (a perfect example of "three into two won't go" from our childhood learning of fractions),  I offer the following bi-partisan proposal of my own.
 
1.  Regulation
    
      Both in its actuality, and in fear of its future impact, this is a huge job's killer.  Even this Green/Cap&Trade/Big Government administration is beginning to learn this as the President backs away from the EPA's costly new rules on emissions.  So:
a)  Delay the implementation of Dodd Frank for 2 years, pending a review of its actual response to its original purpose of eliminating "too big to fail". 
b)  Pass new legislation that requires Congressional Approval of any new Rule by a Federal Agency that would affect the economy by $100 million or more.  The hurdle would be deemed to be reached if 25% of the 535 members of Congress signed a statement declaring the cost is this high.  Any combination of Senators and Representatives numbering 134 or higher could trigger this provision for Congressional Approval.....Big Regs should be owned by politicians accountable to voters.
 
2.  Medicare
 
      Suspend the implementation of the 2010 reform by 2 years, or by 18 months following a Supreme Court review of its Constitutionality, whichever comes first.  Reiterate the "non-severabilty" of all clauses from the Constitutionality of the private insurance purchase mandate....I would like to suggest more, but it is still true that "elections have consequences", both in 2008 and 2012.
 
 
3.  Corporate Taxation
 
      Immediately drop the Corporate tax rate to 23%, while enacting a package of deduction and credit reforms that CBO will keep the total tax rate constant....It hardly matters what they are; Congress will then begin changing them in 2013.
 
 
4.  Social Security Taxes
 
     Reduce the employer contribution for SS tax by 5 % points for all new employees earning less than $5,000 per month for a maximum of up to 3 years for each such employee, so long as he/she remains an employee of  the initial employer.  Limit the program to new employees hired over the next three years.....We need to encourage the hiring of more people in preference, at least in the near term, to reducing taxes on those already employed.
 
 
5.  Unemployment Insurance
 
      Extend the temporary provision of unemployment compensation to 78 weeks for 2 years.  But, the amounts per week should drop by 25% for weeks 26 - 52 and by 50%  for weeks 53-78....We must maintain incentives for work of some kind.
Else, why have any low-income tax credits/payments.  
 
 
6.   Immigration and Jobs
 
       Increase the number of "improperly documented workers" audits, focusing on areas with the highest unemployment rates.  All illegal workers to be fired and replaced by a bona-fide citizen or properly documented non-citizen worker.  Unemployed Americans who are physically capable of doing the work of new openings created by this process will lose all Unemployment Compensation beyond 26 weeks.....There is a very real linkage between illegal workers and non-working Americans based on the comparative income levels of working vs. accepting charity from those who do work.  This was learned with Welfare and we know it also applies here, even if it politically incorrect in some quarters to say so.   If Seniors work as Janitors or Grocery Clerks & Baggers or in Fast Food outlets, unfulfilling as these roles may be, so then should the currently unemployed.
 
Only election-oriented radical members of the Political Class want a high-unemployment and low-growth economy.  Reasonable people should compromise on PACKAGES of job-stimulous-ideas, even if they are not all exactly as they would like. 
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Obama's Rout in 2012

August 24, 2011
 
  Only 15 months to a new presidential election, and the word from the mainstream media is that Obama is in the lead for a second term.
Nonsense !  Remember, this is the time when candidates try to raise money and media tries to sell advertising.  Both do better if the perception is of close races, especially for President.  
 
When Obama was elected in 2008, it was not due to a huge electoral vote difference (365-173), nor to winning 53% of the total vote (with a margin of 8.5 million.)  As I pointed out then, and repeat now, it was because 700,000 people in 6 key states marked D on their ballots instead of R.  Obama's combined winning margin in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virgina was only 1,300,000 votes; change, selectively, the votes of  700,000 to R from D and McCain is our President.  Their 107 electoral votes give McCain 280 to Obama 258. 
 
What has changed in those states ?  They all went solidly Republican in 2010.  The Democrats were flailed in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida.  North Carolina and Indiana came back to the Republicans "big time".  One poll has Obama's approval rating in Pennsylvania at only 35%, and I suspect that those readers in the other 5 states are seeing similar low numbers.  Does anyone think Obama will win any of these 15 months from now ?
 
Also in the picture are the North-Central states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.  Obama won all 3 in 2008, but since then Democrats have been swept out in droves.  The new Democrat Governor of Minnesota faces Republican legislators, in a state office reversal.  Senator Kohl is not running again and the current Govenor is not very popular.  We watched the Unions wound only themselves in Wisconsin.  Michigan has a very high unemployment rate, but lots of sensible actions from the new Republicans, who will be in a good position to claim credit in 2012.  These three states gave Obama 37 electoral votes,  at least some of which will be lost to him in 2012.
 
What will rescue Obama ?  The economy is, alas, teetering.  His Regulators are still off the reservation trying to write new rules that will continue to aggravate voters and hurt any economic recovery.  He is still trying to avoid putting any economic Plan on the table, a tactic that people are now seeing through.  The Europeans have their problems and will not lead a world recovery.  Ben Bernanke is out of monetary policy bullets. 
 
This is a failed Presidency.  Any candidate who gets the Republican nomination is going to win big.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Random Thoughts

Did you know that "faithfully executing the laws of the United States" is part of the President's oath of office ?  Why then, is President Obama ignoring his oath to secure our borders against illegal immigration ?  He can try to get a better law, but I haven't seen one submitted by the administration.  Or, he can pander to hispanic voters (self-announced as part of his "political base").  Or he can divert attention from his oath-breaking with rhetorical thunderbolts laced with venom and hyprocisy.  He has chosen to define this third course as an option while ignoring the reality of his pandering, but neither is a legal option for sworn members of the Executive Branch.  Even if it were, before launchuing the Justice Department to "oversee and challenge" Arizona's new law, shouldn't he or the Attorney General actually read all of its ten pages, most of which just repeats existing Federal law and (quite properly) directs sworn local officers to carry it out ?
 
 
The Greek Government sent false reports to their citizens and to the EU about their real deficits, thus prolonging their politically popular spending spree.  They entered into deivitave deals to hide their debt, which has aded to the problems confronting the Eurozone.  Their actions (as yet unpunished, not the subject of hostile public "hearings", and no public apologies or resignations) call into question ALL government reporting.  When the US reports good jobs growth in April at the same time that the unemployment rate goes up from 9.7 to 9.9, it is clear that the 9.7 (proudly down from over 10) didn't mean what we thought it did.  Another good jobs month, causing more actually unemployed people to raise their hand for counting, may push the unemployment rate back over 10%.  Less than 2 months after Obamacare was scored as "10 year deficit reducing" by the CBO, the administration's own HHS reveals data IT ALREADY HAD, forcing the CBO to show the program as deficit increasing - a swing of close to 20 percentage points on a program alleged to raise spending only some $1 Trillion over 10 years. 
 
Greece, Spain. Ireland have all announced CUTS in unionized government worker pay because their own budget deficicits exceed 10 % of GDP.  The CBO is not permitted to make reasonable projections, but must follow specific rules set down by politicians.  Even so, the CBO offers us about 10% for ourselves this year.  Is it a "resolute course of action", as President Obama urged on the Spanish Leadership, to punt our problem to a Commission that is not allowed to say anything until AFTER the November elections ?
 
More later.
$1 Trillion
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Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHLB's, et. al.

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has just announced that the Administration will propose a new structure for the Federal Government's involvement in the residential mortgage market to replace these failed Government Sponsored Entities (GSE's).  He confirms that they held or guaranteed about half of all US mortgages, roughly $5 Trillion worth, before they collapsed in August 2008 bringing chaos to world financial markets.  The Treasury Department took them into "conservancy" and made explicit the implied Federal guarantee of their debt, a guarantee that had allowed them to push other mortgage lenders out of the market, take excessive credit and balance sheet risks, and show profits in "good times" from which their top mamagers made huge fortunes.  Then, all the profits disappeared when their accumulation of mortgage "assets" proved partly worthless, leaving taxpayers on the hook for at least $400 Billion in cash losses so far (Congressional Budget Office), eradicating shareholder's equity, and wiping employees 401k pension assets.
 
Taxpayers, and especially our Senators and Representatives, should know CLEARLY how this happened.  How can we pass new financial market regulation without knowing exactly what occurred, which regulators allowed it to happen, and what Federal policies led to the catastrophe ?  Make no mistake about it, this collapse is the biggest bank failure in the history of the Western world, dwarfing the S & L debacle and making Bernie Madoff's fraud look like small change.  With far less $'s involved, we put Enron's top management in jail, forced their auditors into bankruptcy, and concocted Sarbanes-Oxley - which has been a cost-raising disaster ever since and which did nothing to prevent the oft-denounced excessive risk-taking in the private, exchange traded, banking sector.
 
Some Key Questions:
 
1.  What $ value of underlying mortgages, claimed as assets at December 31, 2007, have been written off, sold at a loss, or written down as of December 31, 2009?
2.  What $ value of mortgages (including those guaranteed) at December 31, 2007 should have been classified as "sub-prime" as we now understand this phrase.
3.  How much was paid to their managers in bonuses and stock grants during the period when this horrible portfolio was being assembled ?
4.  The Senate Finance Committee and the House Banking Committee have the ultimate Congressional Oversight Responsibility for these entities.  Democrats Chaired both of these in 2006 and 2007 and still do.  Previously, they were sometimes Chaired by Democrats and sometimes by Republicans.  Were they ALL asleep ?;  Lied to ?;  Putting idealogical support for the American Dream of owning one's own home well ahead of prudence with taxpayer money ?; or just incompetent ? 
5.  If anyone was guilty of even one of the charges in Q4, above, should they have any role in new formulations for these entities ?
 
The failure here is so obvious.  But the failure of the perpetrators to acnowledge their own failure remains deafening, and therefore very ominous.
 
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Republicans for Health Care

Last Friday Charles Krauthammer called in from a car stuck in a blizzard to ask Fox News this question, "What should the Republicans say is their view at the February 25 bi-partisan meeting on health care ?".  Here is a suggestion.
 
Our three great entitlements - Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid - now consume ALL of the tax dollars we collect from personal income taxes and from payroll taxes.  Our economy is now in a delicate stage of recovery from recession but with continued high levels of un- and under-employment.  The Federal Deficit set a record of more than $1trillion in 2008, that became higher in 2009, with a new record projected for 2010 of $1.6 trillion.  Under the best of probable outcomes, the deficit will also exceed $1 trillion in 2011.
 
In these circumstances, Republicans believe that increasing any of these entitlements would be the height of fiscal irresponsibility.  Even if we could agree on new taxes to make such an expansion "deficit neutral", these new funds are the very ones we need to reduce the deficits we already have.  Our continuing huge deficits already threaten out economy, undermine the world's financial stability, and impair our
childrens' future.
 
Republicans believe that the Federal Government must shift its focus to reducing spending and to improving the economy to create private sector jobs.  Almost all of the 7 million jobs lost since the start of this recession have been in the private sector, which is the sector which creates wealth for all Americans.  We are willing to support judicious tax increases and spending increases, provided that these are aimed at jobs and are a part of a serious program to eliminate deficit spending as our future way of life.
 
Health Care produces and consumes about 1/6 of our total economy.  It is a huge system that exceeds the gross national product of all but a few countries.  Within Health Care, we believe that we must first focus on cost, not on spending more money.  Specifically, we should now
      1.  Replace the concept of "medical malpractice" with professional administrative judges who make awards where warranted to cover future medical costs, lost income of the sufferors, and limited damages for pain and suffering.  More than 20 states now do this, with generally fine results.  This will cut liability insurance premiums that flow back into the system as costs spread to all Americans by at least $250 billiion over the next 10 years.  It will also help reduce medically-unneccessary testing, aimed at covering the health providers' posteriors, by at least a further $300 billion over 10 years.
      2.  Allow people to buy health insurance accross state lines.  This will allow all Americans to purchase the insurance they believe they need.  Too many states have put too many mandates into their state's policies, albeit with good intent.  A individual policy in New York State now costs about $1,300 per month.  Younger, healthier people cannot afford this, nor should they be asked to.  No wonder they choose to be uninsured.  They will stay that way, or become health wards of the federal government, unless we allow them to buy something sensible for their needs.
      3.  Reduce the "why not, someone else is paying for it" syndrome within our health care system by taxing participants in employer plans that offer much more expensive coverage and much lower employee contributions than the average, or by comparably reducing the tax deductibility to sponsors.  Calling wages "health benefits" was a tax gimmick appropriate to the circumstances of WWII.  Today, it is a gimmick that raises the costs of all Americans by penalizing them with wage related tax payments that others do not pay.  It should be phased down, and out, over a reasonable period of time.
      4.  Refuse to permit insurance companies to raise premiums or cancel coverage just because someone gets ill.  Affordable coverage in these circumstances is what insurance is all about.  However, we must be very careful about forcing companies to write new policies for new customers without adequate rates to cover the health risk of older age or pre-existing conditions.  This would otherwise allow people who have chosen "no, or limited, insurance" to freeload at the expense of other Americans.  The money we save from 1-3 above will allow us to expand the safety net for people who are ill but have limited means to pay normal rates.
      5.   Support the concept of freeing our hospital emergency rooms to become just that, rather than being the primary care center for poor Americans.  Let's organize a test program for 100 busy emergency rooms in hospitals across the country to see what costs and benefits are actually invoved, in partnership with state and local governments.  We are confident that as we realize real savings from the above programs, we will be able to expand the safety net for American citizens in this and other directions.
 
We Republicans are not "nay-sayers".  Our ideas have been on the table for a long time - unread, under-reported, voted down in committee, or passed over behind closed doors.  Every one of them deserves to be a part of real reform.  We are, however, a party of 'reality sayers".  In the context of a recovering economy, Republcans created a prescription drug addition to Medicare that is now extremely popular and costing less than forecast.  This was a bi-partisan effort opposed by many on the other side of the aisle who wanted to do too much, and by some on our side of the aisle who thought the cost was too high.  Today, though,  magical thinking and lofty rhetoric not founded in the reality of our circumstances and resources should  melt in the fury of our deficits and the paucity of our jobs.
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Reassured ?

It actually was reassuring to hear President Obama, belatedly, say that the Detroit airplane bombing attempt wasa "terrorist act".  It would have been nice if he had gone on to say that the Fort Hood Massacre was a terrorist act as well.  That renunciation of "Obama-think" was left to the U.S. Army this week, when the mountain of evidence regarding the Army Major who killed 14 and wounded some 20 more became too big to contain.  The President overruled Janet (Security Worked) Napolitano, while The Secretary of Defense, along with the Commander of the Joint Chiefs, overruled themselves and the entire White House in renaming the Fort Hood "act".  So the score for deaths from terrorist attacks within the Domestic U.S. since 9/11 is now, OFFICIALY, Bush O, Obama 14.
 
It is true that the Major didn't need al-Queda to train or arm him (he knew how to shoot his own gun), but he was motivated by the same jihadist rage and fuelled by the same viscious Islamic cleric as his "co-suspect" in Detroit.  In his case it was the FBI and the Army who were asleep.  In Detroit it was the CIA and the State Department who slept.  And the National Intelligence Staff was absent-without-leave in both situations.
 
The problem is not just incompetence or evil people bribing them to look the other way.  They were just somnolent, so focused on other duties/concerns that they lost sight of their primary job of being suspicious of threats to American Lives, for the safety of which they must make mountains of molehills and  risk censure for overzealousness.  My heart goes out to the Major's colleagues who DID report his radicalization and to the Father who tried hard to warn us of the danger posed by his own son.  How dispiriting it must be to blow the whistle when no one wants to hear.  President Obama has not apologised to them, let alone awarded them medals for the help they offered; he has not fired anyone for their "not connecting the dots"; and he has allowed both terrorists the opportunity to be tried in criminal courts.  The Congress, with the blessing of the Supreme Court and at the request of former President Bush, had established an alternate judicial method - military tribunals - which give us much better access for legal, but stressful, interrogation that was precisely designed for these situations.
 
The somnolent state of those in charge of the 5 key bureaucracies mentioned above (CIA, State Department, FBI, Army, and Natioinal Intelligence Center) has been strongly influenced by the Commander in Chief's failure to remind them of their first focus every day, to test it with staged espionage attempts, to punish slackers, to choose policies that re-inforce vigilance, to encourage watchers with his speeches and praise, and to demonstate their importance with where he spends his time.  For the past year this White House has been conducting a war, but a war on the Bush Administration rather than on terrorism. 
 
We will close his Guantanamo Bay, regardless; we will not call our enemies terrorists; let's re-think more troops for Afghanistan; let's accuse Bush of being responsible for this delay because he didn't ask the "hard questions"; let's give OUR hand-picked General only 75% of what he asked for; let's pretend that the ambiguity of this wait and the announced beginning of their withdrawal even before the troops have been sent has no effect on the perception of our determination; let's show up Bush by trying the 9/11 Five in New York; let's pretend that the Major was a lone crazy and not a terrorist; let's allow Janet to try out "security worked"; and, when at last we are forced to admit to the terrorist nature of the major and the bomber, let's be sure to add a homily about avoiding "siege mentality".
 
These are a lot of dots with president Obama's hands all over them.  If he doesn't connect them, and soon, there will be many Americans here at home joining the first 14.
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The Budget

Having passed a budget, a stimulus package, cap and trade, and health care, literally in the dead of night and in the most partisan of ways, 
Nancy Pelosi must be very disappointed that the last two are at least being looked at in the Senate.  Some Democrat Senators are already calling for a "bi-partisan, independent commission on the deficit".  But, these are the same Senators who are happily voting in favor of the biggest new entitlement spending bill in history - a $1 trillion whopper financed by medicare "cuts" that these same Democrats will not let happen, big new tax hits, and the deception of showing only half the spending by starting it in the 5th year of a "10-year" look.

The Budget Outlook must be really scary.   Yes, it is.  

In August the Congressional Budget Office issued a review of the deficit outlook, following an update by the Office of Management and Budget.  To demonstrate how worthless these 10-year CBO projections are, let's look at the year 2015, the midpoint of the 10-year period.  The CBO says that from a base of 2010, real government spending will rise only 7% (total) over the next 5 years.  This has never actually happened in the history of the CBO.  It says that the real economy will grow by 25% over this period, DESPITE an 87% rise in individual tax payments.  Repeat, 87% in inflation adjusted, like-to-like numbers.  And still the deficit will be $558 billion in 2015 !  Moral:
Pay no attention to 10-year government projections !!

The CBO is bound by law ( political class law) to assume that no NEW legislation that is not yet on the books can be considered, that all sunset provisions are honored, and all tax law remains as written at the time the forecast is made.  Thus, the CBO numbers do not show any amelioration of the Alternative Minimum Tax, despite former years' actual practice.  It goes crunch in 2010.  All of the "Bush Tax Cuts" expire in 2010 and go crunch in 2011.  Cuts in Medicare reimbursement rates (over 20%) are actually made at the start of 2010 and thereafter.  No future spending is adjusted for inflation or population growth, except as required under current law, and no new spending initiatives are authorized for anything.  (At least "Pork" remains constant.)  Congressional rules regarding budgeting have made the CBO useless for much more than the current year and next, with the 3rd year and beyond showing the garbage that comes out of the garbage that goes into a deliberately blinded forecasting machine.

Still, there a few things showing up in the August revision that are worth noting....*The GNP growth for 2009-20011 has dropped to -2.5, +1.7, +3.5 (to 1.01% of 2008)  from -2.2, +1.5, +4.2 (104% of 2008.......*Average unemployment for the year is now 9.3, 10.2, 9.1 versus 8.3, 9.0, 6.4 projected at the start of the year.  (Now, you understand the urgency of the White House Jobs Summit.)
                                                                                                                         *The 3 year cumulative deficit is now $3.9 trillion, up from $2.4 trillion....                                                                                            *The TARP subsidies to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are now $338 billion, up from $270 billion.  (The bailout of the Banks is more correctly called "Bailout of the Government Run Banks".)

The numbers are likely to get worse, rather than better, by the end of 2011.  Republicans, beware of Liberals NOW seeking bipartisan 
blame-sharing.  These hypocritical elitists should do a lot of real world repentance (falling on swords ?).  Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, and Chuck Schumer owe the country $338 billion for their off-balance sheet social-engineering - more than all other financial frauds combined over he last 25 years.

..........................................................................................................................   
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Trial of the Century

   Now that New York City, home of so many "hanging judges", is scheduled to host the 9/11 terrorist trial(s), it seems timely to share some gallows humor to ease the pain.
 
1.  One of our judges should grant an injunction to prevent the prisoners' being transferred here until President Obama has signed the transfer orders, as required by law.  Mr Holder lacks the authority to do this on his own.
 
2.  The ACLU should sue to prevent the trial here on the grounds that it is cruel, unprecedented (that includes "unusual"), unnecessary, and undeserved punishment for New Yorkers.  Why not Washington, the only City that wants the trial here, or Riyahd, the capital of the country-of-origin of most of the perps ?
 
3.  Mayor Bloomberg should announce that any German Officials sent here to monitor the "torture" aspects of the trial or the use of German-collected evidence to seek the death penalty will be denied access to all NYC owned or subsidized spaces until the German Government has arrested the thousands of former German Stasi employees still at large. Until 20 years ago this organization ran real torture centers and noxious prisons and murdered people for climbing walls.  "Never Forget" still applies, but apparently not in Germany.
 
4.  Senators Schumer and What's-Her-Name should demand that the health bill contain at least $500 million in Landrieu Heath and Welfare Grants for New Yorkers for extra security and posslble ambulance and hospital services. (amount ratioed up for greater population) 
 
5.  Anticipating the security-driven removal of mailboxes and trash bins, The USPS and the Sanitation Department should procure 500 statues of Eric Holder uniformed on one side as Mailmen and on the other as Sanitation Workers, with clear acrylic receptacles for trash and mail on the appropriate sides.
 
6  The media should save paper and newsprint and avoid spelling errors by referring to the Defendants as the "Holder 6, less Rich".
 
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President Obama Forgets

 
    On January 20 President Obama took the Oath of Office and became Commander in Chief.  From that moment on, he became responsible for every American soldier in Afghanistan.  They stayed there because he did not recall them.  It wasn't as if he was surprised to find them there.  He was elected 74 days earlier and had been talking about them as Senator and Campaigner for over three years.  In that 74 days he planned what the first, second, and third, etc. acts of his Presidency would be.  What I recall was a jolly big party, pretty speeches, and a naively premature announcement that Guantanamo would be closed by the end of the year. 
 
   Later in the spring no one was surprised to hear him announce that "Afghanistan is the war of necessity" as he despatched 20,000 more troops.  He also fired the General in charge, replaced him with his own hand-picked man, and spoke, elegantly of course, of victory.  Since he had been saying this for over three years, it seemed to flow naturally.  Obviously, he had a plan.  I was reminded of Truman replacing MacArthur and Eisenhower replacing Patton in Sicily.  Great stuff.
 
  But, spring is also the time that battle picks up in Afghanistan as the country thaws.  And this year the long scheduled Presidential Election would occur, necessitating protection for voters at hundreds of wide-flung and tough-to-defend polling places.  I was in England for the summer and watched the British press turn the rising number of body bags coming home into a national disaster (which it was).  It frequently knocked swine flu (never a real disaster - about as many deaths as body bags)) , Gordon Brown's mistakes (far more numerous, but who cares anymore), and the recession (very deep indeed) right off the front pages.
 
  What a terrible time for poor General McChrystal to turn in the report on resources and objectives that the President had ordered, especially as he said another 40,000 trooops were needed quickly for the mission to succeed.  An awkward moment; very awkward indeed.  The President has now had this assessment for at least 61 days, and is facing the need to close Guantanamo in only 61 more days.
What to do ?
 
  First, they tried to blame leakers, but this found no traction, nor did the idea that the General was responsible.  Then they talked about the general's speech in London, but this was prepared long in advance and carefully vetted.  (The Pentagon and Military Brass are not stupid.)  Then, Rahm Emmanuel said that the Bush Administration had never asked the hard questions and just handed the new White House this mess.  Cheney then noted that the Bush Administration prepared an in depth review of Afghanistan after the election, presented it to the Obama Transition Team, and recognised the fruits of this labor in President Obama's spring offensive.  He had documents, e-mails, and presentation-goers to back him up.  For his huge and disgusting lie Mr Emmanuel should have been fired, as Eisenhower did with Sherm Adams when Sherman appeared in his Vicuna coat.  This was not a high-point for Obama in setting the stage for bi-partisanship.
 
Apparently, President Obama has forgotten that for 3 years he had a policy, that he reviewed the Bush report (or his lieutenants did), that he re-iterated this policy when he sent in more troops (itself a new provocation to those Afghans who think we are invaders), and that by allowing an imbalance to exist between the mission and the means to achieve it he is responsible for more than just the presence of troops in this country.
 
Personally, I am also torn between "all in and win" and "everybody out with predators and big bombs as needed in the future".  I hope our President gets it right, and soon.  I was reassured by a former officer I got to talk with this week who said in resonse to my direct question after the event,  "The guys know how to protect each other; so, I doubt that the delay in Washington has increased our casualties in the past several months".  He also said that morale was good, although everyone would like to hear what their mission is going to be because they know some of their friends (or themselves) will die pursuing it.
 
 And so we wait; hopefully, not for half-measures.  An administration starts forward and then reverses, delays and evades, denies and lies and scrutinizes so careful the effect on domestic politics does not fill me with confidence that they will "Do the Right Thing".  Look for 10,000 by March, new review, 10,000 (if necessary) by June, etc.  Has everyone forgotten that successful wars cannot be scheduled like like the World Series, with tentative dates asteriked with "if necessary".
 
 
 
 
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Health Care Quality

Articles and blogs that attempt to denigrate the quality of American Health Care usually provide three lessons in statistics that all politically aware people should know.  Almost always they will refer to America's "mediocre to poor" ranking for Life Expectectancy (35th) and for Infant Mortality (44th). 
 
Lesson 1
     Always use correct figures when lying with statistics.... Both 35th and 44th are correct when measured against data reported by all UN member states.
 
Lesson 2
      Always use measures that support your conclusion, even if it means using measures that don't actually measure what people think they do in the context in which you speak...Neither of these statistics actually measure "health care"; they measure the group effect of many societal factors in a particular country of which health care qualty is only one, and not necessarily the most important one.  Consider:
          Life Expectancy:  They key factor here is the design of the human organism. The "average" human being (whoever he/she may be)
                    lives 66.6 years (population weighted).  In 35 countries, including the US at 78.1, the LE is between 76 and 80 years.  In
                    Japan it is 82, making this country the subject of numerous studies to explain why.   Alas there are 139 countries below 76
                    and every country below 60 (except for Laos) is in Africa....  In the closely grouped range of 76-80, quality of health care
                    no longer is THE likely difference.  Look at immigrant inflows, their health, combat deaths, automobile deaths, food and
                    shelter, climate, etc.  which, at the margin, may now re-arrange the rankings.
 
          Infant Mortality:  Here, low numbers are good and the US, as above, is not the highest ranked.  Our 6.26 per 1000 "live births"
                    is 44th with 45 countries in the range of 4.2 to 8.2.  Only 16 countries do better while 145 countries are at least double the
                    U.S rate.  Within this latter group countries with more than 100 million people include China (20), India (55), Indonesia
                    (xx), Brazil (22), Pakistan (65), Nigeria (xx), Bangladesh (xx) and Mexico.  Alas, these countries contain 1/2 of the world's
                    population.....Within the US, the rate for black people is over 13 (if that means anything) but the crucial factor is the
                    number of premature births in this country - 13% of the total.  They account for about 18,000 of some 27,00 infant deaths 
                    within a year of birth.  The statisticaly correct, but really gruesome idea, that all permature babies be killed before birth 
                    would drive our IM rate down to about 2.  This bizarre result ought to say something about using IM to say our health care
                    is "bad".  
 
Lesson 3  Never mention statistics that might show a different "reality" from the one you are claiming.  Better mesures of health care quality abound, but mostly in professional journals.  Perhaps those readers who enjoy research might look at average life expectancy following first diagnosis of coronary disease; average waiting time for expensive tests felt useful by your doctor; organ transplants per population; ditto joint relacements; colostomy surgery; dialysis machines per diabetic; 5-year survival rates for cancer by type; preventive mastectomies; survival rate for unerweight infants, by prematurity range.  And many more.
 
And then, when you next hear about America's lousy Life Expectancy and poor Infant Mortality, you will have reason for the anger you feel.  This will help you throw rotten fruit harder and more acurately
 
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A capsule re-assessment of Obama

One year ago our new President seemed bright, thoughtful, well spoken.  True he was a bit in-experienced and without much of a track record, but that just seemed to make him new and different.  BUT,
 
Today we see that he grew up with the Left and the Radical Left.   After 25 years of speaking their slogans and hearing them repeated back to him, it is no wonder that he now has them confused with truth.  His practical experience as a "community activist", prominently with Acorn and as a counselor to them, and as a rising star of the Daley political machine (where a black man must belong to Jeremiah Wright's congregation to survive, let alone get ahead) together taught him that playing hard-ball and attack politics are fine, justified here by the pursuit of truth.
 
So, his hard left turn for the American ship-of-state that is now so apparent should not suprise us.  Nor is it somehow his fault.  It was there all the time and we chose not to see it. 
 
His encouragement of Congress to push huge changes through (unread, and literally in the dead of night) without dialogue and in contempt of the loyal opposition is typical of  Big City Bossism, as are the the attacks on those who disagree.  In context, they are not only acceptable, they are the right thing to do.  Attack !  Don't give the armies of the doubters an instant to regroup.  Campaign everyday, denigrate the past, silence the opposition press as much as possible, personally discredit opponents.  These are the right things to do, not violations of democratic expectations and practise.
 
We knew these traits in Conressional Democrats - Pelosi, Frank,Waxman, Dingell, Reid, Conyers, Leahy, Kennedy, Biden to name only some -but Obama hadn't shown them.  So, are suprised and angry that he "hid" it.  Not fair. W asked the wrong question.  We knew the Congressional Beast well.  The only relevant question was "Would Obama contain it ?".  On this basis, and this one alone, I escaped voting for him in 2008.
 
Too few of us did likelwise.  Too bad for us.
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